Using Mann-Kendall Test on Litecoin and More
There are many cryptocurrencies out there, but I have been mostly playing with Litecoin. I recently asked myself whether there would be a statistical model that I could use to show trends.
I had to think about what models could be used in other cases that I could apply here. After searching on Google, I realized the Mann-Kendall test can be used on cryptocurrencies to identify the trend. It tests the data to see how the prices move up or down consistently. I used a Python package to run the analysis and collected the data for several weeks using Selenium to scrape from a website. Moreover, the model could identify trends in complaints, attrition, and more for business use cases.
I performed the analysis for different durations. For instance, a more extended period would show that the trend is decreasing, but the trend is increasing in a shorter period. It shows the relative significance of the variance of y and x. For instance, the Litecoin price could have a significantly higher variance in a month than a week. It can also show that the price is trending down in the long run (relatively speaking); therefore, it tells us that there is a higher risk to investing.
As you can see from the graph and outputs, the middle slope starts from the intercept to the current price. The actual price (in red) is moving consistently within the slope. This is based on approximately 10,000 minutes or 166+ hours or almost 7 days.
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